The Mar-a-Lago Accord is a framework authored by Stephen Miran — now a Fed Governor — that proposes a managed restructuring of the global monetary order to reduce the "exorbitant burden" the US bears as the world's reserve currency issuer. The core diagnosis is that the dollar's reserve status causes it to trade at a premium to its fundamental value, making US exports uncompetitive and US manufacturing hollowed out. The proposed solution is a coordinated, controlled dollar devaluation achieved through a combination of tariffs, pressure on trading partners to reduce their dollar reserves, and if necessary, direct currency market intervention or Treasury restructuring.

The Accord is already partially implemented. Tariffs have been deployed at the highest average rate since 1934 — 17.9% across all imports. The dollar fell approximately 10% trade-weighted in 2025. The CFR assessed in January 2026 that "the Mar-a-Lago Accord is becoming a reality." The elements already enacted have produced the desired currency weakening — but they have done so with a side effect that the Accord's architects appear not to have fully modeled: they have made dollar-denominated assets less attractive to foreign holders, accelerating the reduction in foreign Treasury demand at exactly the moment the US needs maximum foreign demand to finance its $10 trillion in 2026 maturities.

The dangerous elements not yet enacted include: forced conversion of foreign-held Treasury securities into 100-year non-tradable bonds (a selective sovereign default by any functional definition), imposition of "user fees" on foreign official holders of US Treasuries (again, a form of selective default), and direct Federal Reserve-Treasury coordination on yield caps (fiscal dominance institutionalized). Any of these measures, if announced, would constitute a breach of the implicit contract under which foreign governments hold US Treasuries — the contract that they can be sold at market prices at any time. Breaking that contract would trigger an immediate sell-off of US debt by every sovereign holder with the capacity to act, producing exactly the yield spike the measures are designed to prevent.

The bond market does not need these measures to be enacted to price in the risk premium they represent. It needs only to assign a non-trivial probability to their eventual enactment. That probability is rising with every month the Accord's logic is pursued and with every dollar of foreign Treasury selling that the policy has already accelerated.